Lockdown easing: Experts warn against opening pubs too soon

One infectious diseases specialist told the Press Association it was "premature" to set a timeframe for things like allowing pub gardens to open.

He insisted the Government needed to wait for more data on the spread of the virus.

Publicly, Prime Minister Boris Johnson agreed, saying it was too early to say when specific parts of the economy would open up again.

But inside Government plans are taking shape for easing lockdown rules in March and April, according to the Sunday papers, as pressure mounts on the PM from his own Conservative MPs to make this lockdown the last.

Meanwhile, another expert has said the Government doesn't need to wait for numbers - by now, it's obvious reopening pubs could lead to a resurgence of the virus, he said.

There is also pressure from the pub chain, Young's, for the Government to have people back in pubs in April.

It has accused the Government of having a "lack of interest" in saving British pubs.

Here are the different sides of the debate:

'Premature' to talk about reopening pubs

Dr Bharat Pankhania, senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter medical school, told the PA news agency it was simply too soon to discuss dates for reopening pubs or other parts of the economy.

He said: “It’s premature because we don’t know what the state of cases will be in the country at that point in time.

“It may be that the cases are low and that we have regained control because we are now managing to keep the case numbers down and our immunisation levels have been sufficiently high to have a majority of the vulnerable population immunised and therefore protected.” 

Dr Pankhania, who has widespread experience of advising on national communicable disease control action plans at national and international level, added: “What the executives of pubs etc etc need to know is that failure to get it right equals back to square one.

“And back to square one equals much more pain economically, much more hardship.

“It is better to get it right than to prematurely bow to pressure and open up when you’re not ready to open up.” 

Dr Pankhania said all activities where human to human interactions occur involve risk, pointing out that alcohol also makes people drop their guard.

“Whichever way you want to cut it, you drink alcohol to relax and have a bonhomie with your friends.

“One of the consequences of relaxing is that you drop your guard,” he said.

'Opening pubs...will allow the virus to spread'

Dr Julian Tang, honorary associate professor at the University of Leicester, said we now know how Covid-19 spreads and should not have to keep seeing numbers at this stage.

Even without monitoring the latest case numbers, the Government should know an action such as reopening pubs was risky, he argued.

The consultant virologist told PA: “The numbers are now just surveillance to monitor the virus as it is spreading – to see the trends in response to various interventions, which is different.

“Opening pubs will bring more people into closer contact with each other – this will allow the virus to spread – we already know and understand this concept.

“The virus has mutated now with various more transmissible, partial vaccine-escape variants co-circulating.

“So opening pubs too early in April before we are sure of the impact of the vaccine will likely generate more ‘statistics’, but they may not be the numbers that they want to see – and it may trigger another local or national lockdown if this is done too early before enough of the rest of the population has been vaccinated.”

Dr Tang added: “Asking to see the numbers and not reacting until you do – is inevitably doomed to fail – because by the time you see the numbers, the virus is already spreading – as we have seen in the two previous lockdowns.”

Pubs feeling 'exasperated'

In his letter to Mr Johnson, chief executive of Young’s, Patrick Dardis wrote: “Young’s is calling on the Government to save our great British pubs and pull the country back from the brink of economic misery.”

He added: “We are exasperated at the obvious lack of interest and respect we are getting from this government.”

Mr Dardis referred to pubs sector CEOs resigning from a forum of discussions with the Government.

He added: “We are shocked and appalled that the Government is basing its decisions to keep the great British pub closed on unfounded and unproven statistics.

“As the vaccination program continues to gain incredible momentum and protects those most at risk, the Government’s message to the pub sector remains despairingly bleak.

“We have been given no indication whatsoever that pubs will be allowed to reopen, nor any guidance about what restrictions may be in place when they can.”

He added: “There is no reason why pubs cannot open in April, giving people back their liberty and their much loved pub.”

Government giving little away

A Government spokeswoman said: “We are deeply disappointed that some pub leaders have decided to step back from meetings with ministers.

“As we plan our way out of restrictions, we will continue to engage relentlessly with the hospitality sector, as we have done throughout this pandemic, and our door remains firmly open.

“The Prime Minister will set out our plan to gradually reopen the economy in the week of February 22.

“We understand that this is an extremely tough time for the hospitality sector, but we are supporting business with one of the most comprehensive and generous packages of business support in the world worth £280 billion.”

Mr Johnson was asked on Saturday if people could be drinking in pub gardens in April, and he told reporters: “If you don’t mind I’m going to ask you just wait a little bit longer, give us some more time to look at the data about what’s happening, look at the way the numbers are coming down, study also I think, very importantly, the efficacy of the vaccines – are they working in the way that we hope that they are?

“Making sure that they’re really helping along with the lockdown to drive down the incidents. That’s the key thing.

“I’m optimistic, I won’t hide it from you. I’m optimistic, but we have to be cautious.”

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