Wiltshire and Liverpool are both Tier 2: How they compare

There had been speculation over potential stricter rules in the run up to Christmas but ultimately, everyone hoped that the relatively small number of cases across the county would see Wiltshire return to its previous Tier 1 status.

Looking at the situation in Salisbury, Tier 2 restrictions may seem a step too far but according to Wiltshire Council, cases are rising evenly across the county, and our city is no exception.

At Salisbury District Hospital, where two Covid-related deaths were reported in the past week, staff have also noticed a small rise in cases and not too long ago urged residents not to underestimate the impact of the virus on people's health.

Why not Tier 1?

The only three places in England that have been spared harsher rules than those that were in place before the second lockdown began are Cornwall, the Isle of Scilly (whose figures are included in Cornwall's) and the Isle of Wight.

Judging from their numbers, why Wiltshire won't be in Tier 1 alongside them once the lockdown is lifted looks fairly obvious.

According to the latest data, the Wiltshire Council area recorded 71 new cases in the latest 24-hour period, bringing the total number of infections since the start of the pandemic to 4,837.

In the latest seven-day period (the week to November 20), Wiltshire reported 638 new infections, the equivalent of 127.6 per 100,000.

Cases by specimen date in Wiltshire

In the same weekly period, just 365 new infections were recorded in Cornwall and the Isle of Scilly (case rate of 62.4) while the Isle of Wight only saw 100 new cases (case rate of 70.5).

The overall number of coronavirus cases since the pandemic began in Cornwall and the Isle of Wight is also very low - 3,625 for Cornwall and the Isle of Scilly and 940 for the Isle of Wight.

Wiltshire and Liverpool in the same Tier

Wiltshire's Tier 2 also includes places such as London and Liverpool - the latter being one of the cities that alongside Manchester bore the brunt of harsher restrictions before the entire country went into lockdown on November 5.

In the week to November 20, Liverpool had 868 new infections and a case rate of 174.3 per 100,000.

In the last 24-hour period, it recorded 87 new infections bringing its total since March to a figure about five times higher the total for Wiltshire - 23,688.

But unlike Wiltshire, in the past few weeks infections in Liverpool have been declining rapidly and steadily, explaining the government's decision to include the city in Tier 2 as opposed to Tier 3.

Cases by specimen date in Liverpool

Wiltshire numbers may be lower than in Liverpool and most other areas in the South West, but have been going up since the beginning of the second wave in the second half of September.

The hope is that figures will soon begin to drop as a result of the four-week lockdown, but Wiltshire Council's director for public health said on Tuesday (November 24) that this had not yet happened and that the continuous rise in cases was of concern and to some extent, unexplained.

How was Wiltshire's tier decided?

The government says the decision of which area goes into which tier has been based on case detection rates in all age groups, case detection rates in the over 60s, the rate at which cases are rising or falling, positivity rate and pressure on the NHS.

A rationale published by the government states that Wiltshire and Swindon have been allocated Tier 2 as "case rates continue to fall in Swindon but are increasing in Wiltshire".

So does this mean Wiltshire will continue to stay in Tier 2?

If cases were indeed to fall as a result of lockdown, something we may not have seen yet because of the usual data lag, then the county could go back into Tier 1.

Tier allocations will be reviewed every two weeks so there's a chance local businesses and residents may not endure strict restrictions for too long if worrying upwards trends are reversed.