ANYONE observing politics over the last week can hardly have failed to reflect on what happened in the Clacton by-election.

I always expected Douglas Carswell to retain his seat, based on his reputation as a hard-working constituency MP.

I have never dismissed the significant levels of concern about some dimensions of Britain’s membership of the EU and, in particular, the impact that unqualified freedom of movement between the populations of member states has on some parts of our country.

That is why I think it is essential that at the General Election next year a Conservative mandate is achieved to allow the Prime Minister to negotiate concessions which will give this country greater influence over how we handle immigration before putting continued EU membership to a national vote in a referendum in 2017.

Personally, I will reserve the right to decide whether to vote to leave the EU until I see what those concessions are.

But let us be clear – two million British citizens live elsewhere in Europe. Are UKIP expecting these individuals to be forced to come back to the UK if we earn the right to restrict those from continental Europe who wish to come into Britain? I somehow doubt it.

Even if, on the most optimistic predictions, a small handful of UKIP MPs are elected next May the effect will be to make it far more likely that Ed Milliband will be elected into No 10 and the Labour Party will be the Government. Labour have made it clear that they will not offer a referendum unless Brussels seeks to acquire significant additional powers.

What Labour refuse to face up to is that it is the massive transfer of power to Brussels under Prime Ministers Blair and Brown, on which people want the right to reform and have a say on – not changes that may or may not happen in the future.

I will energetically support the need to renegotiate with Europe but also to continue to embody the so-called “new politics” by being responsive and committed to serving my constituents as fully as I can, but I will never patronise those I represent by pretending that there are quick and easy solutions to complex problems in Europe or elsewhere.